Bush setting America up for war with Iran

Pentagon planners have developed a list of up to 2,000 bombing targets in Iran, amid growing fears among serving officers that diplomatic efforts to slow Iran's nuclear weapons programme are doomed to fail.

Pentagon and CIA officers say they believe that the White House has begun a carefully calibrated programme of escalation that could lead to a military showdown with Iran.

Now it has emerged that Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, who has been pushing for a diplomatic solution, is prepared to settle her differences with Vice-President Dick Cheney and sanction military action.

In a chilling scenario of how war might come, a senior intelligence officer warned that public denunciation of Iranian meddling in Iraq - arming and training militants - would lead to cross border raids on Iranian training camps and bomb factories.

Under the theory - which is gaining credence in Washington security circles - US action would provoke a major Iranian response, perhaps in the form of moves to cut off Gulf oil supplies, providing a trigger for air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and even its armed forces.

Senior officials believe Mr Bush's inner circle has decided he does not want to leave office without first ensuring that Iran is not capable of developing a nuclear weapon.

The intelligence source said: "No one outside that tight circle knows what is going to happen." But he said that within the CIA "many if not most officials believe that diplomacy is failing" and that "top Pentagon brass believes the same".

He said: "A strike will probably follow a gradual escalation. Over the next few weeks and months the US will build tensions and evidence around Iranian activities in Iraq."

Previously, accusations that Mr Bush was set on war with Iran have come almost entirely from his critics.

Many senior operatives within the CIA are highly critical of Mr Bush's handling of the Iraq war, though they themselves are considered ineffective and unreliable by hardliners close to Mr Cheney.

The vice president is said to advocate the use of bunker-busting tactical nuclear weapons against Iran's nuclear sites. His allies dispute this, but Mr Cheney is understood to be lobbying for air strikes if sites can be identified where Revolutionary Guard units are training Shia militias.

Recent developments over Iraq appear to fit with the pattern of escalation predicted by Pentagon officials.

Gen David Petraeus, Mr Bush's senior Iraq commander, denounced the Iranian "proxy war" in Iraq last week as he built support in Washington for the US military surge in Baghdad.

The US also announced the creation of a new base near the Iraqi border town of Badra, the first of what could be several locations to tackle the smuggling of weapons from Iran.

A State Department source familiar with White House discussions said that Miss Rice, under pressure from senior counter-proliferation officials to acknowledge that military action may be necessary, is now working with Mr Cheney to find a way to reconcile their positions and present a united front to the President.

The source said: "When you go down there and see the body language, you can see that Cheney is still The Man. Condi pushed for diplomacy but she is no dove. If it becomes necessary she will be on board.

"Both of them are very close to the president, and where they differ they are working together to find a way to present a position they can both live with."

The official contrasted the efforts of the secretary of state to work with the vice-president with the "open warfare between Colin Powell and Donald Rumsfeld before the Iraq war".

Miss Rice's bottom line is that if the administration is to go to war again it must build the case over a period of months and win sufficient support on Capitol Hill.

The Sunday Telegraph has been told that Mr Bush has privately promised her that he would consult "meaningfully" with Congressional leaders of both parties before any military action against Iran on the understanding that Miss Rice would resign if this did not happen.

The intelligence officer said that the US military has "two major contingency plans" for air strikes on Iran.

"One is to bomb only the nuclear facilities. The second option is for a much bigger strike that would - over two or three days - hit all of the significant military sites as well. This plan involves more than 2,000 targets."

Willem Middelkoop: Nieuwe recessie is onafwendbaar

In het gesprek gaat Middelkoop nader in op zijn tweet: 'IMF is duidelijk bezig de wereld klaar te stomen voor a "new world currency"'. Middelkoop vertelt dat het IMF de volgende fase aankondigt in de kredietcrisis: een vervanger voor de dollar als wereldreservemunt. Een stap die na een nieuwe crisis kan resulteren in een wereldmunt.

lees meer

CIA Red Cell-document bevestigt de regel - 3

De eerste groep mensen die bij een militair conflict onder vuur komt te liggen, is het publiek. Zij zijn de eerste slachtoffers in de strijd. Want bij een militair conflict is oorlog slechts een fase. De grootste strijd is die om de hearts and minds van het grote publiek.

lees meer

Daan de Wit geeft lezingen op TU Delft en Universiteit Utrecht

lees meer

CIA Red Cell-document bevestigt de regel - 2

Het CIA Red Cell-advies om de bevolking van Europa te beïnvloeden zodat het de missie in Afghanistan blijft steunen, was opmerkelijk. Maar de realiteit is dat de inhoud van het document de regel bevestigt. In mijn boek De Volgende Oorlog - De Aanval op Iran - Een voorbeschouwing heb ik een aantal feiten over dit soort beïnvloeding op een rij gezet. In het vorige deel van dit artikel stond een aantal voorbeelden. Ook in dit deel volgen nog enkele citaten uit het boek.

lees meer

CIA Red Cell-document bevestigt de regel - 1

Bij een militair conflict is oorlog slechts een fase in de strijd. De grootste strijd is die om de hearts and minds van het grote publiek. Het bijzondere aan de affaire rond het CIA Red Cell-document is dan ook niet de inhoud, maar dat het is gelekt. Het document is schokkend, maar de realiteit is dat de inhoud de regel bevestigt.

lees meer