Iran's oil revenue running dry, analysis shows

Iran's economic woes could make the country unstable and vulnerable, with its oil industry crippled, Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, said in the report and in an interview.

Iran earns about $50-billion (U.S.) a year in oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 per cent annually. In less than five years exports could be halved and then disappear by 2015, Mr. Stern predicted.

For two decades, far longer than its designation by U.S. President George W. Bush in January 2002 as part of the “axis of evil,” the United States has deployed military forces in the region in a strategy to pre-empt emergence of a regional superpower.

Iraq was stopped in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, but a hostile Iran remains a target of U.S. threats.

The U.S. military exercises have not stopped Iran's drive. But the report said the country could be destabilized by declining oil exports, hostility to foreign investment to develop new oil resources and poor state planning, Mr. Stern said.

Mr. Stern's analysis, which appears in this week's edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, supports U.S. and European suspicions that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons in violation of international understandings. But, Mr. Stern says, there could be merit to Iran's assertion that it needs nuclear power for civilian purposes “as badly as it claims.”

He said oil production is declining and both gas and oil are being sold domestically at highly subsidized rates. At the same time, Iran is neglecting to reinvest in its oil production.

“With an explosive demand at home and poor management, the appeal of nuclear power, financed by Russia, could fill a real need for production of more electricity.”

Iran produces about 3.7 million barrels a day, about 300,000 barrels below the quota set for Iran by the oil cartel, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The shortfall represents a loss of about $5.5-billion a year, Mr. Stern said. In 2004, Iran's oil profits were 65 per cent of the government's revenues.

“If we look at that shortfall, and failure to rectify leaks in their refineries, that adds up to a loss of about $10-billion to $11-billion a year,” he said. “That is a picture of an industry in collapse.”

If the United States can “hold its breath” for a few years it may find Iran a much more conciliatory country, he said. And that, Mr. Stern said, is good reason to belay any instinct to take on Iran militarily.

“What they are doing to themselves is much worse than anything we could do,” he said.

“The one thing that would unite the country right now is to bomb them,” Mr. Stern said. “Here is one problem that might solve itself.”

The West and the Iranian Green Revolution - 1

The uprising in Iran has reminitions of non violent and violent actions by the west to overthrow governments. Is the Green Revolution entirely sponteneaous? In this article I quote from my book The Next War - The Attack on Iran - A Preview.

read more

Secret US policy is the real story behind the Somali pirates: Africa correspondent

Africa correspondent Thomas C. Mountain in an interview with DeepJournal: The pirates are protected in the military bases of the Ethiopian army in Somalia, a force protected by the United States for serving as the local policeman. Mountain explains that the corrupt Ethiopian military shares the loot of the Somali pirates: 'It's protection money'.

read more

The Next War: Donkerdoorn vs Daan de Wit (1)

DD: Daan, we now have Obama - the man of change - in Washington. Bush is gone, and with him goes the American threat to Iran. Or so you'd think. We're still hearing that trusty "Bush rhetoric" out of Washington. [...] Are we dealing with schizophrenic American policy here? How do you explain this American position?

read more

Unconventional weapons used in Gaza, says Norwegian surgeon based in Gaza

Israel has likely made use of unconventional weapons in the Gaza War. This according to the Norwegian surgeon Mads Gilbert speaking to the French press agency AFP. Gilbert worked in the Al Shifa hospital in Gaza during the war. In an interview [video] he says: 'I can tell you that we have clear evidence that the Israelis are using a new type of very high explosive weapons which are called Dense Inert Metal Explosive (DIME) and are made out of a tungsten alloy. [...] Gilberts view is supported by 'Paola Manduca, a genetics professor and member of the Genova based ‘New weapons committee’ [...].

read more

Interview financial expert: more expensive, less to spend, riots in the streets

You have to figure on riots and rebellions taking place, especially in the big cities. Some countries may see revolutions, the Mediterranean countries in particular. At that point government buildings could be set on fire and government employees attacked. You have to consider these kinds of scenarios. In any crisis situation you're going to have people who revolt. In order to see what can happen in a crisis situation we have only to look at what happened in Argentina. People went from being middle class one day to finding themselves below the poverty line the next.

read more