Iran's oil revenue running dry, analysis shows

Iran's economic woes could make the country unstable and vulnerable, with its oil industry crippled, Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, said in the report and in an interview.

Iran earns about $50-billion (U.S.) a year in oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 per cent annually. In less than five years exports could be halved and then disappear by 2015, Mr. Stern predicted.

For two decades, far longer than its designation by U.S. President George W. Bush in January 2002 as part of the “axis of evil,” the United States has deployed military forces in the region in a strategy to pre-empt emergence of a regional superpower.

Iraq was stopped in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, but a hostile Iran remains a target of U.S. threats.

The U.S. military exercises have not stopped Iran's drive. But the report said the country could be destabilized by declining oil exports, hostility to foreign investment to develop new oil resources and poor state planning, Mr. Stern said.

Mr. Stern's analysis, which appears in this week's edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, supports U.S. and European suspicions that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons in violation of international understandings. But, Mr. Stern says, there could be merit to Iran's assertion that it needs nuclear power for civilian purposes “as badly as it claims.”

He said oil production is declining and both gas and oil are being sold domestically at highly subsidized rates. At the same time, Iran is neglecting to reinvest in its oil production.

“With an explosive demand at home and poor management, the appeal of nuclear power, financed by Russia, could fill a real need for production of more electricity.”

Iran produces about 3.7 million barrels a day, about 300,000 barrels below the quota set for Iran by the oil cartel, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The shortfall represents a loss of about $5.5-billion a year, Mr. Stern said. In 2004, Iran's oil profits were 65 per cent of the government's revenues.

“If we look at that shortfall, and failure to rectify leaks in their refineries, that adds up to a loss of about $10-billion to $11-billion a year,” he said. “That is a picture of an industry in collapse.”

If the United States can “hold its breath” for a few years it may find Iran a much more conciliatory country, he said. And that, Mr. Stern said, is good reason to belay any instinct to take on Iran militarily.

“What they are doing to themselves is much worse than anything we could do,” he said.

“The one thing that would unite the country right now is to bomb them,” Mr. Stern said. “Here is one problem that might solve itself.”

Liver flush - Geertje van der Burgh on How and Why

Until five years ago, she was often sick and suffered from all sorts of infections. In the course of researching these problems, she discovered a liver flush that ultimately cured her, improving her condition to a level better than it had ever been. Geertje van der Burgh on the how and why of the liver flush.

read more

Daan de Wit (DeepJournal) interviewt Webster Tarpley op het Magneetfestival

​Het Magneetfestival gaat de diepte in met vier interviews. Daan de Wit interviewt Webster Tarpley, Albert Spits, Mike Donkers en Geertje van der Burgh.

read more

Fight against Damascus and Tehran a threat to Russian and Chinese interests

Not the entire world is wishing for a different Iran, although it does seem like that at times. Superpowers China and Russia are charting their own course, and in spite of their modern relationships with the West, there are still a lot of differences.

read more

Preparations for a war against Iran in full gear

News reports on Iran are now following each other in rapid succession, and together they form a new step towards a military conflict. [...] What follows is an analysis of these fast-moving developments

read more

NATO and CIA covertly arming Syrian rebels in order to weaken Iran

It is clear that all the pieces are being put into place for a war against Iran. It is a long-term project demanding many years worth of preparation, and the ultimate goal is getting closer all the time. One component of this preparation is the covert arming of Syrian rebels.

read more