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17 maart 2005   |     mail dit artikel   |     print   |   
Impending world-wide recession through nose-dive dollar
The Dutch in the original article has been translated into English by Marienella Meulensteen.

'Crash of the dollar appears to be a question of time', headlines Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad on 14 March above an article written for Newsweek by Fareed Zakaria. He tells how enriching countries, especially from Asia, invest their money in American government funds: 'That way the American interest rate stays low, and therefore, the Americans can borrow and spend money - on Asian goods. In short: they save, we consume, their and our economy grows and everyone is happy.' The only problem is that 'the Asian banks cannot keep stashing dollars endlessly, and especially not when they devalue'. What happens when the exchange rate of the dollar collapses? Economists reckon with a world-wide recession.

Compared to the euro, the value of the dollar decreased during the past three years with more than a third, calculated The Economist. 'We’re like the untrustworthy brother-in-law who keeps borrowing money, promising to pay it back, but can never seem to get out of debt. Eventually, people cut that guy off', writes Jim Rogers in 2003, known to the Dutch because of his interviews for VPRO-television, where he presented his clear economical insights. Zakaria: '[... The] world does not revolve about rational economic dealing alone. Politics and psychology play a big part, and in that area there is reason for concern. [...] If everyone thinks that in a while the dollars will be disposed of, there is a strong incentive that someone - a small country - will make the start before the price deflates'. And then there is hell to pay.

Ever more countries consider dropping the dollar
It appears that this process has already started. Bloomberg writes: '[Malaysia] is seeking ways to reduce the economy's reliance on the dollar for trade. Indonesia has mentioned it is considering trimming its holdings of U.S. Treasuries. The same goes for Thailand, according to the Financial Times. China also has been in the news as traders speculate that Asia's No. 2 economy may pull the plug on dollar-denominated debt. Such a move by the second-biggest holder of U.S. Treasuries after Japan could send shockwaves through global markets.' 'It would be prudent for them to diversify their reserves, but that could send the dollar tumbling', writes The Economist. So the fear is that these countries will cut their losses of the devaluating money, drop the dollar (further) and  switch over to more stable currencies, like for instance the euro. 'Once Asian central banks do, the dollar's woes will worsen. [...] If Asians pull the plug, U.S. rates could skyrocket.' But not only Asia reconsiders, also Rusland for example: 'Russian central bank president Sergey Ignatiev said last month that the Bank of Russia was considering changing the composition of its gold and foreign currency reserves to reduce its dollar holdings in favour of the euro', writes press agency AFP.

Shortages US keep rising appallingly
The Financial Times continues: 'Central banks are shifting reserves away from the US and towards the eurozone in a move that looks set to deepen the Bush administration's difficulties in financing its ballooning current account deficit. [...] The consensus among economists is that the U.S. current account deficit will increase to $694 billion in 2005', and '$825 billion by 2006'. Investor Warren Buffett estimates that America's debt to foreign countries 'could surge to $11 trillion by 2015', writes the Financial Times in another article.
The central banks saw their losses increase by the weak dollar. The European Central bank as well as the Deutsche Bundesbank were forced to lose hundreds of millions of euros, writes AFP. 'Handelsblatt said the low level of interest rates alone knocked around 700 million euros off the ECB's net interest income.'

Economical situation more grave than ever
'As he did in a November speech, Greenspan forecast that at some point foreigners — who are currently financing U.S. trade deficits by buying dollar-demoninated assets — will lose some of their appetite for U.S. investments. But Greenspan said such a scenario is likely to occur in an orderly fashion without disrupting the U.S. economy', the Associated Press wrote last week. Not everyone shares in the optimism of the director of the federal bank of America, because in the past there have been panic stories about the dollar that turned out fine after all. Why would it go wrong this time? 'One good reason is that the current-account deficit, currently running at close to 6% of GDP, is almost twice as big as at its peak in the late 1980s, and on current policies it will keep widening. Second, in the 1980s America was still a net foreign creditor. Today it has net foreign liabilities and these are expected to reach $3.3 trillion, or 28% of GDP, by the end of 2004 (see chart 2)', The Economist writes at the end of last year.
Jim Rogers writes in February 2003: 'How long does the dollar have? A year? A decade? I’m not so sure. As long as there’s no other currency stepping up to the plate and the EU continues to struggle with the euro, the U.S. government will likely be able to continue to jiggle the books, essentially floating our enormous tab on the backs of the rest of the world. No country in history which has gotten itself into such a situation has escaped without at least a semi-crisis eventually.'

US have to act to avert world-wide recession
The Americans are used to the power of their currency, are used to the fact that others value its worth very highly. The Economist writes in its cover article The disappearing dollar: '[The] privilege of being able to print the world's reserve currency, a privilege which is now at risk, allows America to borrow cheaply, and thus to spend much more than it earns, on far better terms than are available to others. Imagine you could write cheques that were accepted as payment but never cashed. That is what it amounts to. If you had been granted that ability, you might take care to hang on to it. America is taking no such care, and may come to regret it'. In another article in the same issue The Economist describes two future scenarios, one that requires strong action of the current American government, and one where there will soon come a point beyond which things cannot go, a world-wide recession: 'The best way would be for the government to cut its budget deficit. That would reduce America's need to borrow from abroad, and so mitigate the fall in the dollar and rise in bond yields that will otherwise be demanded by investors. If combined with stronger growth abroad, then the current-account deficit could slowly shrink. America's growth would be depressed by tax increases or spending cuts, but there would be no need for recession. If, on the other hand, the government fails to cut its budget deficit, the dollar will fall more sharply and bond yields will rise. America's housing bubble might then burst and consumer spending would certainly slow sharply. That combination would reduce the external deficit, but only at the cost of a deep recession'.

Free fall of dollar reeks of plot
The economic policy of the US seems to describe the last flight of a kamikaze pilot. Why this type of conduct? Is there a hidden agenda and what might it be? Part of the policy is the much criticized tax restitution by Bush. Friend and foe agree that the biggest advantage is had by the more affluent Americans. While social safety nets are taken away, especially the rich are refunded a lot of tax money. The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer. Because of this, but of course also because of the burden on the scales through military expenditures, the US has run up such an enormous debt that it appears to be inevitable that they will succumb under it. That could not be the intention?
But maybe it is the intention, because in the meantime, Bush and his rich friends have already feathered their nests. In the meantime, they don't care any more about a social safety net and a collapsed economy. What is more, a collapsed economy provides low prices on the Stock Exchange. In this economic situation, nobody has any money left to buy stock except Bush and his consorts. Then at one point the rebuilding of the economical curve will start and the rich will possess even more than before. It already may look like they make the decisions despite a semblance of democratic 'checks and balances', but then they will be supremely powerful.

Over-consumption US is biggest cause of present economic misery 
At the World Economic Forum in Davos end of January, the steady fall of the dollar was the main topic of discussion, The New York Times writes. The NRC heading of afore-mentioned Newsweek article by Fareed Zakaria is echoed by critics at the forum: '"There's nobody home on economic policy in America right now," said Stephen S. Roach, the chief economist at Morgan Stanley. The twin burdens of household and public debt in the United States, he said, are unsustainable. Describing American consumers as "an accident waiting to happen," he asked, "When does the music stop?"'. The American way of life is frantic, a luxury that cannot be sustained. The Economist writes: 'America has habits that are inappropriate, to say the least, for the guardian of the world's main reserve currency: rampant government borrowing, furious consumer spending and a current-account deficit big enough to have bankrupted any other country some time ago.'

Doing away with social security is not the solution
What is the solution for the miserable economic situation? The members of the cabinet BushBlairBalkenende know. The neo-conservative friends of our Dutch government in the US set the tone with extremely smarting suggestions to compensate their enormous military expenditures and expensive oil imports. In the Netherlands, the carefully constructed social structures are under fire. These plans are unmasked as a neo-conservative trick to disrupt the social character of our society. 'To such people I say: there is no corellation between doing away with all social benefits and positive economic growth. These are apples and pears. You can do away with all programs for social security, the pension fund and social rights, you can take care of it that people will have more money left to spend, but that only causes negative growth. More crime, more jails, deterioration of health care, infrastructure and education', according to Jeremy Rifkin 'one of the most well-known economists' on 12 March during a long interview in NRC Handelsblad.

Solution is there, but unattainable
Newsweek describes the solution of the present situation in the article Bottom Dollar: 'Americans need to export more and to consume less. We could raise taxes, decrease government spending and increase interest rates; all those steps would dampen consumer spending and promote saving. Meanwhile, the Asians could permit their currencies to rise against the dollar—unlike the euro, China's yuan and the currencies of many other Asian countries are pegged to the dollar. That would make their exports to us more expensive and our exports to them less expensive. Finally, the Europeans could liberalize their markets and lower interest rates. Their economies would grow faster. Taken together, this package would achieve what economists call a "rebalancing'' of world economic growth. The United States would have an export-led expansion, not import-led consumption. Europeans and Asians would produce more for themselves and buy more from us. Unfortunately, this nifty bit of economic engineering has proved impossible in practice.' The article mentions why it is unattainable in practice: local views on the global matter are limiting factors. The author seems to suggest that limited visions do not look further than the country borders, while a supranational act is necessary in an economical situation that does not care much about borders.

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