Dit artikel is deel van de serie: Eefje Blankenvoort
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DeepJournal interviews Iran journalist Eefje Blankevoort - part 2

DeepJournal: In your opinion, how do the Iranian people view the possibility of a war?
Eefje Blankevoort: 'First of all, the people in Iran are just plain afraid, and have been since last year. You can see this in the weblogs, but I've noticed this also in conversations I've had with people. A lot of people feel like it's going to happen very soon. Yet at the same time most people are saying, 'Regardless of how much we hate our rulers and our regime, we will never welcome an American attack.' And this is really important. Every bomb, every American smart bomb that wanders off-target, will work to the advantage of the regime in Tehran. That's actually what all of the regime's opponents are saying, and the people who support the regime - whom you could practically count on one hand - they're saying that they'll fight tooth and nail to defend the country. But even people who hate the regime will seriously consider making a contribution to the defense of the country.'

DeepJournal: But how likely do they think it is that this war is really going to happen?
Eefje Blankevoort: 'I think it fluctuates, just like here. There have been times when it peaked, like last year when it really looked like it was going to happen in March of 2005. At that time you really could see people thinking: 'Now it's going to happen, an attack is coming'. Everyone was scared to death. Meanwhile things have toned down a bit, and now with these new threats, I think that a lot of people are again worried that it's going to happen. But as far as how sure people are about it, that's difficult to say, just as with people here. No one can be really sure of it, or not yet anyway.
If it comes to a ground war, the Americans will be up against an army of fanatical people. For the most part, the same rhetoric will be used that was used during the Iran-Iraq war - rhetoric which a large portion of the population is still easily influenced by. So we might well see a return of the cult of martyrdom that became so highly evolved during that war, regardless of how much criticism there will be against another war. Who knows whether or not this will garner support this time, with soldiers freely prepared to sacrifice themselves. The Iranian war rhetoric during the war with Iraq revolved around the idea of 'Blood overcomes the sword'. So ultimately the will to die is stronger than the desire to kill. Iran could have a huge arsenal of weapons, or could be militarily superior, but if you have just enough people who are willing to die for the good fight, then you've got a very formidable weapon.'

DeepJournal: What you're talking about relates to a land war, but everyone is talking about an air war, and possibly a nuclear variant of this.
Eefje Blankevoort: 'I don't believe there is much Iran can do about it. They're constantly talking about these Shahab missiles that have a range of two thousand kilometers, with which they could strike back at Israel. I really wonder whether they would do such a thing. Because if they did they would only be digging their own grave. It would be suicidal for the regime to strike back in this way. If they are attacked and they respond by attacking Israel, then they would get hit that much harder in return. And then you're really talking about 'no turning back', with America possibly moving for regime change, or bombing the entire country to pieces.'

DeepJournal: And as far as this asymmetric warfare (terrorist attacks) is concerned - responding differently than you would in a normal war - what sort of possibilities do you see for Iran here?
Eefje Blankevoort: 'I think they definitely have options for this within the region, we're already seeing this in Iraq. I think that it really is the case that Iran supports a large part of the terrorism there, even providing military support. You also hear stories about several thousands of Revolutionary Guards being there. But in the rest of the world, a terrorist attack on America? I'd have to question that. '
DeepJournal: There are also Dutch soldiers in Afghanistan, right around the corner from Iran. Are they in any danger?
Eefje Blankevoort: 'I don't think so.'
DeepJournal: But why not - Dutch troops could still be seen as allies of the Americans.
Eefje Blankevoort: 'Who knows, but I don't think that Iran will fight back in this way. America refers to Iran as the 'terrorist bank', but I don't believe that Iran has very much to do with the kind of international terrorism that Al Qaida sponsors. If only because they advocate a totally different world view than Al Qaida and are diametrically opposed to each other on religious issues.'

DeepJournal: Regarding China and Russia being supporters of Iran, to what extent can the Iranians count on their support, Russia has shifted its position, away from Iran. Where do things stand right now?
Eefje Blankevoort: 'In my opinion Russia and China are crucial to Iran here because they are totally against sanctions or intervention of any kind. They have of course their own interests there.'
DeepJournal: Except that the stance held by China and Russia against sanctions could cause the whole process at the UN to fail, which would allow the U.S. to say, 'Well guys, this didn't work so we're going to go ahead and attack.'
Eefje Blankevoort: 'That is definitely a risk, and of course it's also the problem. So far America has given Europe a free hand to come up with a treaty via the diplomatic route. Up until this point that hasn't really resulted in anything, in so far as Europe has already played its hand, and Iran is able to go ahead with the uranium enrichment process. Meanwhile it's come before the UN Security Council, but it's definitely going to meet opposition there. There is no doubt that China and Russia are going to oppose it. So this begs the question: 'What's the next step?', and that's really tough.'
DeepJournal: Will China and Russia be of any use to Iran militarily-speaking?
Eefje Blankevoort: 'In don't believe that China and Russia will intervene militarily in the event of an attack. But as far as military support goes, Russia has just sold Iran more missiles. Also Iran is getting a lot of money from the Chinese because they are the largest purchaser of their oil, which gives them the freedom to buy weapons from the Russians.'
DeepJournal: But don't you feel that if Iran is attacked, and China and Russia get involved, that the entire Middle East region will explode?
Eefje Blankevoort: 'I don't believe so, because the personal interests of China and Russia will again take precedence, and that means avoiding war with America.'
DeepJournal: So you think that if it comes to war, Iran will be somewhat isolated?
Eefje Blankevoort: 'Yes, definitely. Within the region itself, the Arab world is quite afraid of Iran. That's been the case since 1979 and hasn't changed in 26 years. And they can't count on support from anyone, except from Lebanese groups, outside the region.'
DeepJournal: In your view, is it possible that a conflict with Iran will be contained to a limited area, so that it wouldn't have to expand?
Eefje Blankevoort: 'I think that it will remain limited, but that it will turn into an unbelievably bloody war, and that the consequences for Iran and Iranian society are going to be huge. I don't believe that the entire region is going to explode. We've seen this in Iraq - there were all kinds of doomsday scenarios beforehand that had the whole region exploding, and that didn't happen. Iraq has certainly exploded, but not the region. '

DeepJournal: That's actually a hopeful report, coming as it does amongst an awful lot of disturbing reports. You're going back to Iran soon. What will you be doing there?
Eefje Blankevoort: 'I'm going to continue working on a photo project that I've been involved with and I'm also going to do some research for a book that I'm currently writing on Iran.'
DeepJournal: What will the book be about, and when is it coming out?
Eefje Blankevoort: 'The book is coming out in March of 2007 if it's ready, if I can at least keep writing. The book is a socio-political sketch of Iran, really the bigger story, yet told through personal experiences of Iranians who are willing to share those experiences with me. And also partially my own experiences. It's really about the story behind the propaganda, behind the conventional image of Iran. That's what it should be about - about real people made of flesh and blood, as opposed to cartoon characters.'

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